З нинішніми виборами пов’язувались прогнози щодо майбутнього курсу гривні, очікування щодо динаміки зовнішнього боргу в 2013 році, а ті, хто вже геть фундаментально копав, пояснювали або ж прояснювали іноземним стейкхолдерам вплив виборів на майбутню інвестиційну привабливість, монетарну політику, делевериджинг та ситуацію з корупцією в судах, що гальмує відновлення кредитного ринку.
Пропоную кілька цитат про вибори з аналітичних оглядів, які готували іноземні банки для своїх клієнтів та інвесторів восени. Вони яскраво передають загальне бачення фінансово-політичного майбутнього України в очах Заходу, яке дещо прагматичніше в порівнянні з візією прихильників окремих політичних сил.
Також цікаво буде звірити прогнози експертів з реальністю через деякий час після того, як спадуть емоції.
The economy will recover slowly over the next couple of years, sustained by consumption and because exports will be fuelled by devaluation; we predict that the hryvnia will be devalued by at least 10 per cent in the months following the October 28 parliamentary election. We expect Ukraine to continue balancing between Russia and the EU in terms of political and economic integration.
The current account continues to worsen due to anaemic international demand, high gas prices and falling steel prices after last year’s peaks. Meanwhile political uncertainty is high. Before the October 28 election, the government wants to avoid unpopular decisions
like raising gas prices to please the IMF and thus revive its loan agreement. Devaluation would ease the pressure. We expect Ukraine to devalue the hryvnia by at least 10 per cent after the election, or by early 2013.
According to the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), the situation of independent media has worsened in recent years, among things due to self-censorship since owners wish to avoid conflict with the government. Although the situation is uncertain, it is more likely that the Party of Regions will form a government, alone or
in coalition, after the election.
Danske Bank (Данія)
The Euro 2012 effect is fading but stable prices support real income growth as social payments have risen ahead of parliamentary elections on 28 October. Budget revenues have been under pressure, thus the deficit is widening on growing expenditures.
…The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) is continuing its tight monetary policy, intervening to maintain the stability of UAH as parliamentary elections are drawing closer. Yet, the NBU has promised it will provide enough cheap refinancing for the banks and consider ‘a more liberal currency regime’.
Markets have recently been more concerned about possible UAH devaluation and we would not rule out new levels for USD/UAH after the elections at 8.5-8.9 in Q4 12 if the government does not agree on lower gas prices.
Укрсиббанк, member of BNP Paribas (Франція)
Another reason for such volatility in the interbank loan market might be the uncertainty regarding the NBU’s policy on the eve of the elections. We do not expect any serious changes in market participants’ moods this week, given that the end of month date is approaching.
In the elections on October 28, we expect ruling Party of Regions to retain control over Parliament, given the latest polls, the high likelihood of widespread voting irregularities and a divided opposition.
…Nevertheless, the close race between the ruling party and opposition is widely expected. The rating of ruling Party of Regions has been cut by half – from over 40% in early 2010 to 23% at the moment – amid the abandonment of most pre-election promises, thriving corruption and increasing signs of political repression. At the same time, it still leads in the polls that should be attributed to the pre-election spending binge, accompanied by aggressive PR campaign, and the weakness of opposition.
…In our view, the new coalition will be stable enough to ensure the adoption of the most important bills, sponsored by the incumbent administration. Therefore, we do not expect substantial changes in the domestic political landscape after the election.
…in contrast to 2008, the currency doesn’t look overvalued based on the concept of the real effective exchange rate. At the same time, we see two main risks to this relatively optimistic scenario, stemming from the sharp adverse changes in the terms of trade (i.e. plunging steel prices) and domestic policy slippages.
In particular, the authorities might be tempted to stick to the unconventional policies, which proved successful in the pre-election period), thus avoiding the implementation of painful but necessary reforms.
We believe that, given the unfavorable global economic outlook and clear downsides of these unconventional policies, this approach is clearly non-sustainable and might lead to a severe economic crisis, similar to 2008-2009.
Parliamentary elections will not change political landscape.
…According to sociological surveys, the ruling coalition will preserve the majority in the parliament. Even if opposition wins, there will be no changes in the way the country is ruled. It is not only because deputies can easily change a political orientation after receiving a deputy status.
Upon the cancelation of amendments to the Constitution in 2010, the President regained significant powers. Parliament needs ¾ of votes to overcome President’s veto. The president nominates all members of the government, apart from the prime minister, by himself.
The premier minister is approved by the President after being nominated by the Supreme Council. The president has the right to cancel any decisions of the government. Thus, the president consolidates almost all powers.
Ukraine has good chances for improving relations with the West after the parliamentary elections. All political parties, including opposition ones, enjoy a complete freedom in election campaigning. At the same time, it seems that the political party of Tymoshenko,
Batkivschyna, will loose the status of the major opposition force.
…Economic growth will not return unless hryvnia devalues. Yet hryvnia devaluation will cause big problems for the state budget. State budget heavily depends on VAT tax on imported products.
At best MoF will find it very difficult to sustain current expenditures during the next year. On the positive side, the next major elections will be in 2015. Thus
there is plenty of room for unpopular reforms.
…The 12 month C/A deficit now stands at 7.9% of GDP, though there are some signs that this is down to investment imports. Ukraine’s budget balance also continues to widen, capturing a combination of weaker than expected economic activity and populist policies ahead of October parliamentary elections.
YTD the general government deficit is 2.3 times wider than it was for the first 7 months of last year. The central bank has increased its holdings of domestic government debt YTD to USD 1.1bn, leaving it holding just under 50% total.
Even assuming that the government controls any FX pressures in the lead up to the election, the combination of such wide deficits, pending EU/IMF payments, a limited FX defence cushion and domestic financing pressures are likely to force the government to act as we enter next year. We assume re-election of the Party of Regions. FX reserve coverage of short term external debt and imports is either back at its 2009 low or below.
Meanwhile Ukraine faces EUR 2.5bn in repayments to the IMF this year, EUR 4.1bn next year. Under any new IMF programme, the two key areas to be addressed are fiscal policy and currency flexibility.